Load-shedding is not a relic of the past in South Africa, with experts predicting its inevitable return. Government officials, including President Ramaphosa, have cautioned that the country’s electricity supply remains precarious.
South Africa has enjoyed over 100 days without load-shedding, marking the longest streak since 2020. This achievement is largely attributed to the enhanced performance of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations, which have undergone extensive maintenance over the past 18 months. These efforts have significantly improved the reliability of these stations, boosting Eskom’s overall energy availability factor (EAF) and enabling it to meet demand.
The prolonged period without load-shedding, extending even into winter, has given South Africans hope that power cuts might be a thing of the past. However, experts, Eskom, and the President have all urged caution, noting that the electricity system remains finely balanced.
In a recent statement, Eskom maintained that its winter outlook is still in effect despite the improved performance and the addition of Kusile Unit 5. This outlook predicted an average of stage 2 load-shedding during the colder months. Managing the morning and evening peaks has become increasingly challenging for Eskom, threatening the reintroduction of rotational power cuts.
So far, Eskom has avoided this by implementing load reduction, which reduces electricity supply to high-demand areas to prevent infrastructure overload. It emphasized that load reduction is not the same as load-shedding, as it still has sufficient generating capacity to meet the country’s demand.
In his weekly letter to the public, President Ramaphosa urged caution against assuming load-shedding is a thing of the past. “Our electricity system remains vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out the possibility of further load-shedding,” he said. The President called on the Government of National Unity (GNU) to continue reforming the electricity sector by increasing private participation. He noted that the milestone of 100 days without load-shedding is a testament to the success of these reforms but not a reason to become complacent.
This warning mirrors sentiments from Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, who stated that setbacks are inherent to Eskom’s operations due to its complex nature. “We are still working on the reliability of these machines, and that’s why we can’t confidently say load-shedding is behind us,” he said. “That would be a false claim that cannot be substantiated.”
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BusinessTech. (2023). Load shedding will be back. [online] Available at: https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/775309/load-shedding-will-be-back/ [Accessed 12 Jul. 2024].